DISTRUPTING VIOLENT CRIMENew approaches for preventing violence in Baton Rouge
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letter from braf’s
ceo chris meyer
I am proud to share our latest brief from the Opportunity Data Project, examining the intersection of public safety and education in Baton Rouge. This extends and deepens our previous research and presents a data-driven approach to understanding and addressing the persistent challenge of violence in our community. Though our community faces some grim statistics, the research presented in this briefing helps us better understand how to begin reversing troubling trends.
In 2024, Baton Rouge recorded one of the highest murder rates per capita in the nation, surpassing cities such as New Orleans, Chicago, and Baltimore. While homicide rates have declined nationally, our city has seen a troubling increase, disproportionately occurring in neighborhoods with high rates of poverty and school disengagement among young men.
This report, developed in partnership with Common Good Labs, the East Baton Rouge Parish School System, and the East Baton Rouge District Attorney, is grounded in one of the most extensive local datasets in the country, combining over fifteen years of education and criminal justice data. The findings highlight a strong correlation between school disengagement and violent crime, reinforcing the need for early intervention strategies that prevent dropouts and provide alternative pathways for at-risk youth.
The analysis identifies five key “signals of disengagement” that serve as early indicators of a child’s risk of dropping out of school and potential involvement in violence. Importantly, our findings underscore that only a small number of children in each grade exhibit these risk factors. This means that with strategic, well-funded support, we can make a significant impact on both educational and public safety outcomes. Investing in these early interventions—at a fraction of the cost of reactive measures such as incarceration—can yield long-term benefits for both individuals and the broader community.
As we seek to create meaningful change, I invite you to engage with this report and consider how we, as a community, can collaborate to ensure that every child in Baton Rouge has the opportunity to succeed.
Sincerely,
Chris Meyer
President and CEO
Baton Rouge Area Foundation
INTRODUCTION
In 2024, the City of Baton Rouge had more murders per capita than New Orleans, Chicago, Baltimore, New York, and almost every other medium and large city in the nation. While homicides decreased across the country last year, they went up slightly in Louisiana’s capitol city.1
As the maps below illustrate, murders in Baton Rouge are concentrated in local neighborhoods with high rates of poverty that also have large numbers of young men who have dropped out of school. Recent history has also shown that when events such as the 2016 Flood and the COVID-19 Pandemic have caused large numbers of teen boys in high-poverty neighborhoods to drop out of school in these areas, the local homicide rate has increased.2
At the end of 2023, the Opportunity Data Project released its first report on public safety in partnership with other local organizations.
This new brief is designed to meet two of the goals outlined in that initial analysis: 1) Prevent future disengagement from school among local children; and 2) Offer alternative paths to disengaged teens that connect them with school and work.
why is baton rouge such a violent city?
Factors linked to local murders
Source: Common Good Labs analysis of the American Community Survey, Opportunity Data Project dataset, and Open Data BR. Notes: Neighborhoods where concentrated poverty is persistent are defined as census tracts where 30% or more of residents lived in poor households for at least five of the last ten years. Data on school dropouts covers boys who were enrolled in the East Baton Rouge Parish Public School System and includes small amounts of noise to protect individual privacy.
It is possible to identify the young men most likely to engage in violence long before they drop out of local middle and high schools.
The analyses in this brief are drawn from one of the largest datasets in the United States on local education. The Baton Rouge Area Foundation (BRAF) and Common Good Labs worked with the East Baton Rouge Parish School System (EBRPSS) and the East Baton Rouge District Attorney to assemble data on educational outcomes and involvement in violence among local children, building on previous research of the Opportunity Data Project. This data covers a 15-year period in which Baton Rouge had an average homicide rate that was more than five times greater than the rest of the nation. This data provides a comprehensive perspective on the intersection of educational outcomes and violence involvement for youth within the parish from age 4 to 17.
Based on the data provided, there is a clear pattern that sets people who engage in violent crime apart from other residents in the parish.
Most are teenage boys and young men in their twenties. The majority of adults convicted of homicide in the last ten years were men between 18 and 29 years old.3
This is also true of the United States, as a whole. However, unlike the rest of the country, Baton Rouge also has an increasingly large number of murders committed by teen boys under the age of 18.4 Due to these reasons, the analyses on preventing involvement in violence contained in this brief will focus on boys and young men in the local community.
What do local young men who commit homicide have in common?
Analyses of 18 to 29 year olds convicted of murder during the last decade within East Baton Rouge Parish.
Source: Estimates above based on Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
Violence in Baton Rouge is home grown. Over 80% of the young men convicted of homicide in the parish grew up and attended school in East Baton Rouge. Unlike in some other cities, violence in Baton Rouge comes almost completely from within the existing community.5
People who commit murder are more likely to drop out of high school. Around 70% of the local young men convicted of murder did not graduate from high school. People who lack a high school diploma have far fewer career opportunities and are more likely to be unemployed, which can be associated with violence involvement.6
People who commit murder are more likely to be raised in neighborhoods where high levels of poverty are persistent. At least 60% of the local young men convicted of homicide grew up in areas with high rates of poverty and low opportunity. Residents in these communities are more likely to be exposed to hazards early in childhood, experience housing insecurity, and experience violence. 7
The last characteristic is perhaps the most important. Although thousands of young boys grow up in local neighborhoods with high rates of poverty each year, only a very small number of them become engaged in violence. If we can help more of them to complete high school and either find a job or continue their education, data indicates that they will become much less likely to commit violent crime in the parish and much more likely to enjoy opportunity-filled, prosperous lives.
Existing research indicates that disengagement from school begins long before a student drops out. Children who fail to complete high school tend to miss more days of school and struggle academically, which can result in more behavioral issues than other students in middle school and elementary school.
Children who drop out in Baton Rouge tend to leave school between 8th and 10th grade, which means that efforts to improve graduation rates must be in place long before high school. Furthermore, local data reveals that it is possible to identify children at high risk of dropping out as early as kindergarten or first grade.
There are five “signals of disengagement” that tell us when a child in Baton Rouge is in distress and in need of additional support.8
Low readiness for kindergarten (Kindergarten): When a student scores at the lowest level of preparedness for learning at the beginning of his first school year.
Chronic absenteeism (1st to 8th grade): When a student misses 10% or more of the days in a single school year.
Behavioral incidents (1st to 8th grade): When a student has more than twice as many major behavioral incidents, such as fighting or skipping class, as his peers in the same grade.
Inability to read at the basic level (3rd to 5th grade): When a student fails to read at the minimum expected level for their grade.
Inability to perform math at the basic level (6th to 8th grade): When a student fails to master grade level expectations in math.
The more of these signals of disengagement that a young boy has, the greater the risk that he will fail to complete high school and become involved in violence. Said another way, the more a child in Baton Rouge successfully meets these marks, the more likely he will experience opportunity and improved life outcomes.
We can provide boys who signal they are disengaging from school with focused support to help them succeed academically and avoid becoming involved in violence.
empowerment to support at-home learning, and expansion of high-quality pre-K to include all local three-year-olds from low-income families.
Chronic absenteeism has already been improved significantly in other communities. School attendance levels across the nation fell in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.10 This has led to the expansion of a number of new initiatives across the country to reduce and prevent chronic absenteeism among local children. This includes outreach to children’s guardians, mentorship programs, special incentives for good attendance, and full-time staff devoted to improving attendance rates. Many other parishes in Louisiana have much lower rates of chronic absenteeism, which suggests that Baton Rouge can better serve young boys in need of attendance support.11
It is possible to use the signals of disengagement to provide greater support to the young boys who need it most in our community. Evidence from other cities shows that we can help children improve in all five of these areas and reduce the likelihood that they fail to graduate high school.
Better support starts in early childhood. When students from low-income families fall behind in early childhood development, it can be very difficult for them to catch up to their peers. Previous analyses of the Opportunity Data Project indicated that local children who are unprepared for kindergarten are far more likely to be unable to read by the end of third grade.9 There are a number of early childhood initiatives that can help students from low-income families to succeed. This includes nurse visitation programs to promote early childhood health, parental
How do we know when a local child needs more support?
Five “signals of disengagement” that show a student is at-risk of dropping out in the future
Source: Estimates above based on Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
Support for emotional development can reduce behavioral issues. Boys from low- income neighborhoods often struggle with challenges that their peers do not, such as learning disabilities, exposure to violence, and mental health issues.12 Programs in other cities that provide counseling and mentorship based on the principles of cognitive behavioral therapy have shown they can significantly increase the ability of students to control their emotions and reduce behavioral issues inside the classroom and engagement with violence outside of school.13
Reading-focused tutoring programs have strong track records. Literacy is critical to children’s success and ability to engage in all subjects in school. As previous briefs for the Opportunity Data Project have noted, from kindergarten through third grade children must learn to read because after third grade they must read to learn.14 Other states, including Mississippi, have shown that it is possible to use focused programs to help children who are falling behind catch up to their peers and read at the expected level in elementary school.15
Math tutoring can also help more boys succeed. Studies in Louisiana have found that failure to be prepared for the 8th grade math exam is a major predictor for leaving school in the next two years.16 Specialized math instruction has been found to improve children’s performance, with particularly notable benefits in middle school. Successful models using individual tutoring or small-group instruction have been developed and scaled in many cities across the country.17
The types of support programs listed above are valuable for addressing each of the signals of disengagement that they target. However, evidence suggests that they can also be useful for generating improvement in other areas.
Programs promoting emotional development have been found to improve attendance and increased literacy in elementary school can boost math performance, for example.
The number of boys who need additional support to prevent them from becoming involved in violence is very small — just a few hundred boys in each grade.
The number of young men and teen boys who are involved in violence is actually very small. Previous estimates have suggested that less than half of one percent of local residents are involved in violence and the number who commit violent crimes is even smaller.18
This means that efforts to prevent violence can be focused on a relatively small number of boys who need them the most. The data assembled for this project suggests that just a few hundred boys in each grade are signaling they are at-risk of disengaging from school, dropping out, and becoming involved in violence.19
Over 440,000 people live in East Baton Rouge Parish. It is completely possible for a community of this size to reach a few hundred boys in each elementary and middle school grade to provide them with the support that will enable them to succeed. The most important thing the community can do is to make sure that those who are most in need are properly identified so they can actually receive the services to help them live up to their potential and have prosperous, opportunity-filled lives.
How many boys show signs they are at risk of becoming involved in violence?
Proportion of all children in East Baton Rouge Parish
Source: Estimates above based on Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
How do the costs of prevention compare to the costs of violence?
Cost per participant based on national benchmark estimates
Conclusion
Programs that support early childhood development, attendance and behavioral improvement, and increased literacy and math performance are relatively low in cost compared to the value they provide. When compared to the savings that each can generate by reducing future violence and preventing poverty, these investments can lead to positive, generational social and economic outcomes for individuals, families and the community at large. Estimates suggest that programs in these areas for pre-K and elementary school students typically cost around $350 per child each year. Those serving middle and high school students cost approximately $3,500 per child each year.20
By comparison, the most effective initiatives that help young men already involved in violence to go back to school, get a job, and stop engaging in violence cost around $35,000 per person. And, a single homicide costs the community $3.5 million in direct expenses, such as emergency medical care and incarceration.21 Early investment of a few hundred dollars in pre-K or elementary school can help save millions in future costs to our community.
The full cost of trauma and loss to families and communities is immeasurable. Children who fail to complete high school create economic ripples in other ways. They are often transferred to alternative schools before they drop out, which have the highest costs per student in the community.22 Furthermore, youth who are involved in violence will at some point encounter the juvenile criminal justice system. Finally, adult poverty becomes a greater likelihood when youth drop out of high school.23
Unfortunately, data shows that East Baton Rouge spends far less on programs to prevent violence than other cities where homicide and other violent crimes have declined in recent years. For example, the city of Newark, New Jersey, where the murder rate fell by half during the last decade, spends an estimated ten times more per resident on community-based violence intervention initiatives than Baton Rouge.24
Our community has an opportunity to help more children grow up to live prosperous lives.
Research in other cities has set a template for successful interventions to improve both community safety and educational outcomes. If we can identify those in the greatest need by focusing on early signals of disengagement, we can then use existing templates to provide them with additional services, ultimately empowering more local boys to succeed.
Source: Estimates on the previous page based on Common Good Labs analysis.
Common Good Labs analysis of data from the Real Time Crime Index and BROpenData.
Acharya and Morris, Why did U.S. homicides spike in 2020 and then decline rapidly in 2023 and 2024? (Brookings).
Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
Turner, 9 Baton Rouge juveniles face murder charges in 2024 — as many as all of 2023 put together. (The Advocate).
Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Early Childhood Education: Identifying the roots of educational disparities in Baton Rouge. (BRAF and Common Good Labs).
Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
2023-2024 School-District-State Student Attendance Rates. (Louisiana Department of Education).
Acharya and Morris, Why did U.S. homicides spike in 2020 and then decline rapidly in 2023 and 2024? (Brookings).
Heller et al., Preventing Youth Violence and Dropout: A Randomized Field Experiment (NBER).
Early Childhood Education: Identifying the roots of educational disparities in Baton Rouge. (BRAF and Common Good Labs).
Kaufman, In Mississippi, a Broad Effort to Improve Literacy Is Yielding Results. (New York Times).
Eren et al., The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy. (Journal of Labor Economics).
Pellegrini et al., Effective Programs in Elementary Mathematics: A Meta-Analysis. (AERA Open).
Guin et al., Baton Rouge Area Violence Elimination: Final Report. (Louisiana State University).
Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
Common Good Labs analysis.
Common Good Labs analysis of Opportunity Data Project dataset.
Ibid.
Common Good Labs analysis of American Community Survey data.
Common Good Labs analysis of data from the City of Newark and East Baton Rouge Parish.
Endnotes
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